The beginning of wisdom...

In the past, I've pointed out to friends that risk, by it's nature, arises from overlooked or unrecognised sources. If democracy in Ghana was ever at risk, it would not be because a particular party had acted in a way that they are generally thought to be capable of. The source of the risk would rather be 'unexpected' quarters.

In the past 48 hours, it seems to me that Ghana has come very very close to electoral disorder. And the only evidence that the EC has of vote rigging is against the NPP, the party that has always claimed, and been accorded, superior democratic credentials.

Ghanaians must be vigilant, regardless of which party is in power. We must cry foul when democratic ideals are infringed. The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names, say the Chinese.

Tain

So the constituents of Tain will get to vote on Friday, and decide the Presidential election! With both political parties camping there for the next 2 days, I would have loved to know the effect on the local economy. Alas, our local governments don't have the capacity to track and publish such data. Suffice to say, providers of hospitality services will enjoy a happy New Year indeed!

Achimota School Foundation

The ASF is trying to raise $5m by 2010. This is intended to fund the restoration of Achimota School and seed an endowment fund. I think it's a worthy effort.

Alumni and friends of Achimota may read more here. I have also provided the link as one of my favourites ont he right side of your screen.

We have a quite vibrant google group. Please search for Achimota2010 if you'd like to join the forum.

Election Day!

The frenzy that we saw during the first round is not much in evidence today. On 7 Dec, many opted out of church and other traditional Sunday morning activities to vote. This time, it appears many people did attend church and may vote later in the day.

I think the ruling party, the New Patriotic Party (NPP), will win this Presidential election. BTW, I'm independent.

Leading up to the first round, I predicted a tight race contrary to what many thought. I'm fortunate that my work takes me all over the country. Where ever I went, it seemed one of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) Big 3 (Mills, Mahama and Rawlings) had been there to rally voters. They may not have had much money for billboards, adverts, etc but it seemed to me they were trying to make up for it with hard work. I'll be much surprised if they can top that effort and rally their base as much again.

On the other hand, the NPP has adopted the stance of the underdog and appear to have worked their socks off leading up to this run-off. I have no scientific basis for my prediction but 52% (+/- 1%) of the vote could be heading their way.

Exciting few days ahead.

Update: Seems like my poll results here and my own prediction were way off the mark. With only 6 constituencies left to declare, John Evans Atta Mills, my old company law prof, has built what seems a narrow but durable lead.

Quietus

QUIETUS
Stirring muscles cloaked in ebony,
Guided with coveted skill
The drill rod to precise bites of earth, and
Funnelled yield to observant, distant natives.
In return,
The clink of coin in his till
At month end

Bloody highways sheathed in ebony,
Delivered food and thieves
To unguarded fettle engaged in honest labour.
Wasted prop of a family in good circumstance;
Costly indiscretion,
To sate a base urge goading reprieve
At day’s end

Hurriedly laid in a casket of ebony,
Packaged, ready for Hades.
He’s eternally indifferent to that thief
Named with a foreboding slash to segregate the dying;
Seven letter name,
Said contrite by all – HIV/AIDS
At life’s end.

An opaque future dark as ebony,
Beckoned the surviving brood.
They lingered, deprived of a father’s nourishment.
Their humongous woe supplicated by a multitude;
Equal Opportunity Grief
That everywhere numbs the enquiring mind!
Is there an end?

Note: I wrote this poem after the death of a HIV-positive colleague. This is the first time I've shared any of my poetry.

Another wasted year?

As a Gooner, I've almost forgotten how it feels to win something now. For 4 years, we've been fed "growing young team" trash and it seems the team never grows. It's been labeled a young team year after year and by their inconsistent performances, the players seem to believe it themselves.

It's been a so-so season so far, now made worse by Fabregas's injury and 4-month lay off. Rosicky is out till March, Kolo Toure and Walcott are out till whenever, Adebayor is suspended for 2 games at least. Injuries and suspensions are part of the game. Great teams are set up to win inspite of such setbacks. If we only have an excellent side when everyone is fit and available, then we don't have much of a team.

Wenger has transformed the club but he needs to be read the riot act by the Board!

Update: Arsenal could only draw 2-2 with Aston Villa at Villa Park this evening after leading 2-0. We remain 3 points behind the Villans.

Krugman & West Africa

My wife is out of town and my sister-in-law has the kids for the day so I decided to have Christmas breakfast on my own at the Fiesta Royale. I was pleasantly surprised to see the restaurant dominated by Nigerian families. They seemed very much at home, enjoying the holidays.

I've known for a while that Ghana is now among the leading holiday destinations for Nigerians. Many of them make the 45min hop by air on Friday evenings, chill out at our hotels and fly back Sunday evening. Quite a few of them come for the shopping as well.

While in business school, we learnt in our economics and international trade classes about David Ricardo's comparative advantage theory (extended by Hecksher & Ohlin) as the key basis of trade among nations. Krugman's New Trade theory (NTT) was never mentioned, something to be discovered by those who chose to read widely. The limited trade volume between West African countries has always been explained away by the fact that we produce quite similar goods: cocoa, timber, minerals. These commodities have left us at the mercy of international demand and supply factors that we have little control over.

However, a disproportionate share of international trade now takes place among western nations that produce similar goods. Krugman won the Nobel Prize for Economics this year for his empirical analysis and formulation of the NTT to explain this reality. Basically:

1. Where production takes place is influenced by the ability to achieve economies of scale.
2. Consumers appreciate diversity in their consumption. Specialisations by different countries in different brands of the same good will make trade possible and increase consumers' welfare. This is why Germany, a country that makes Mercedes cars will import Volvo from Sweden while exporting it's Mercs to the same country.
3. Trade (and production) may be obstructed due to high transport costs. If it's not easy for labour to move around, nominal wages may be high because it cannot move to where it's needed. Distribution of finished goods is expensive. Therefore the welfare of consumers is less than it could be.
   

It is unfortunate that in the year that attention has been drawn to this theory, a theory that (West) African countries should be keenly aware of, all events have been overshadowed by the US elections and the credit crunch. Traveling in (West) Africa can be hell, at the borders, at the numerous police checkpoints on the highways, etc. Different tarrif regimes and other bureaucratic nightmares increase administrative costs of businesses that trade across borders. These are probably the main culprits rather than similarities in goods produced.

It seems to me that it is marginally easier to trade services. Nigerians (and others) can enjoy Ghana's tourism easily. Foreign nationals are a significant market for Ghanaian colleges. We are beginning to see some health tourism too. These are growth sectors for Ghana. Perhaps the only politician with an intuitive grasp of this potential is Yaw Osafo-Marfo, our former Finance Minister. I say this based on his manifesto when he run for (and lost) the New Patriotic Party leadership. If he gets another chance to influence policy, those engaged in these sectors could see some exciting times.

Increased trade is possible, and desirable, among the 260m people of West Africa. We only need to make it happen.

The Christmas Week

The period from 25th December to 01 January is always important to me. I take detailed stock of the past year. I pick over the highlights, decide what's to be celebrated and what can be improved. I don't actually end it with resolutions, just little mental notes to myself.

2008 was a good one. I started it by serving notice of my exit at the end of this year to my previous employer. I know 12 month notices are unusual. However, I've had a good 10 years and my exit has necessitated some restructuring so the notice was good. I was not very sure of my next step but I felt if I did not serve notice, I'd procrastinate and never leave at all. Some great business opportunities came along that promise to yield something from 2009 onwards. So I'm broke but hopeful; a situation typical of either a fool rutted in optimism or the birth pangs of a shrewd entrepreneur. Time will tell. Indisputably, 2008 saved the best for last - the birth of my 3rd son, Adrian, on 13 December.

3 scholarship beneficiaries of Changing Lives Endowment Fund, a charity that I'm proud to be part of, graduated from high school. If they gain admission to any local public university, the scholarship continues. I may get them a "Thank You" card. More than anything else I do, the opportunity to help these kids makes me feel human.

The Irish say the 2 most useless things in life, a headache and an empty pocket. I must do a better job of monetising my opportunities in 2009. If the monetisation process gives me headaches, I'd have to squeeze a bigger premium out of the opportunity!

Out in the open...

I've always been quick to speak my mind among friends. My opinions tend to vary between moderately right and dead wrong. But why should my friends be the only ones to suffer this ignoramus?

If you like what I say, please let me know. If you don't like what I say, I recognise your right to give me an earful but I'd prefer that you don't say anything. As a wise man said, it is the rare man who wants to hear what he does not like to hear.

That's my openers out of the way then. I'll return when I have something interesting to say.