Waiting to be crunched?

In various economic commentaries on the Ghanaian economy that I've read, the effects of the credit crunch is discussed in the future tense, as something yet to manifest. But there are signs all around us that we are in the midst of a crisis.

1. About 5 of our 'big' banks, including the biggest mortgage lender, have frozen lending for lack of liquidity, and those are just the ones I know about. Loan applicants are told various stories but the cash is simply not there. A few more are lending very selectively.
2. Gold exploration activity is down about 70%. My former employer has only about 3 out of 9 drill rigs working and their main competitors have 100% idle capacity. One of the mines could not raise new funding and has been foreclosed by it's main creditor, a South African bank. There will be no mining and export of gold from that mine for, at least, the first half of this year.
3. Remittances are estimated to be down by about 28% so far.
4. The UT Financial Services (late '08) IPO set a record as the first to attract zilch foreign participation. Ecobank raised $500m in rights and IPO when it sought $2.5bn. Except for a block trade in CAL shares last Friday, there's been almost 2 weeks of no trade (hence no price movement) on the Ghana Stock Exchange.
   

Perhaps the commentators recognise that it will take a while for us to feel the full (potential) effect. The budget process this year has not been as inclusive as recent years but it's not too late. Industry and society should bend the ears of our MPs with suggestions that will enrich the debate of the budget in parliament. Our economy was in dire need of stimulation even before the credit crunch!